Also known as Gallup Park.
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White Swans very beautiful, I am used to seeing Black ones in Perth.
Thanks for stopping by! I’m sure black swans are also very striking, but the white ones stand out from a distance, I think… beautiful, altogether!
That is precisely what prompted Nassim Nicholas Taleb to postulate in his book "Black Swan", which was a sequel to "Fooled by Randomness". Here is more on that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory In fact, when @SDIsaac shared these snaps, I couldn't help myself carried away not only by the beauty of the nature, but, also the mystery of nature in its randomness that Math, Probability and Statistics attempts to explain in some shape 🙂
That is an *extremely* thought-provoking comment, and I enjoyed reading the recommended links on the ‘black swan’ theory. I had heard of the book by Taleb, but have not had the pleasure of reading it. Thanks for bringing it to the fore.In line with this, I wonder if I could postulate that this event of happening upon this scene might be considered a ‘black swan’ event?! Seriously, it satisfies all three criteria, i.e., surprise, has major impact, and causes refection. Allow me to explain: there was a definite element of surprise, b/c this time of year, the swans have all flown south, so I was truly not expecting to see them on the lake (which is actually part of the Huron River flowing through one of the parks in town); next, the scene had significant impact in that it caused me to pause long enough to capture these beautiful images, and then prepared and published this post; and finally, there’s all this reflection in hindsight about the probability of seeing swans even in late November…Is this too far-fetched, you think?!
@SDIsaac – Usually, "Black Swan" events connote a <u>bad</u> or <u>bleak </u>outcome. In other words, you are right in trying to relate it to all the 3 elements that it entails with the exception that the positive outcome you derived out of it cannot be called a Black Swan event. But, consider 9/11 or the Global Financial Meltdown or the Eurozone crisis or the Risings in Middle-East or a person's diagnosis of a terminal condition or take the example of my own daughter's parental child abduction and its seething effects on me and my daughter: all of these are excellent examples of Black Swan events. In other words, conventional systems and thoughts and public-policies and even risk-management can take care of 999 foreseeable risks. But, be it a nation or an individual, it is that one or two devastating sockdolagers that can come with such a devastating impact that can bring down the whole edifice down. And the knockout punch will be so strong that in hindsight — Monday-morning quarterbacking — it will be easy to connect the dots to say why it all happened the way they happened, but, up until the point it happened, it was either considered too unlikely or too trivial to be worried about. In other words, enormousness and enormity mark Black Swan events; not magnificence or marvel. Dr. Naseem Nicholas Taleb is one of the most intelligent authors I have read and want to re-read. I wish my Probability and Statistics teachers and professors even matched 1% of his de rigeur and thorough mastery of the subject. Some people are really gifted in their pedagogical skills, in the true sense of the word pedagogy (not its modern day pejorative sense). In other words, nations and individuals, need to be paying attention to those devastatingly powerful events with overwhelming force that could well upend their lives for good or bad; mostly for bad. That is what accentuates Black Swan events.
Many thanks for the time and thoughtfulness in composing this reply– it is truly educational, and certainly clarifies the concept even more. I do see the marked difference employed in the negative connotations of the term and its general usage. Your own personal example is a good case in point.As for the broader subject of randomness and probability, I got for a birthday gift a couple years ago this book titled ‘The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Affects Our Lives by Mlodinow, and found that to be utterly fascinating.Many thanks again for engaging me here, and for the continued illumination!
Obviously this guy hasn’t been to Western Australia.